In the lead-up to the 2024 Queensland state election, a number of polling companies will conduct regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls will collect data on parties' primary vote, and will contain an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They will also ask questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.
Graphical summary
Voting intention
Legislative Assembly polling Date | Firm | Sample | Primary vote | 2pp vote |
| | ALP | LNP | GRN | ON | KAP | OTH | ALP | LNP |
February – May 2024 | Resolve Strategic[1][2] | 947 | 26% | 43% | 13% | 8% | 1% | 9% | 44.5% | 55.5% |
9–17 April 2024 | YouGov[3] | 1,092 | 27% | 44% | 15% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 44% | 56% |
16 March 2024 | The local government elections are held, LNP wins Ipswich West by-election and Labor holds its seat in Inala. |
7–13 March 2024 | Newspoll[4] | 1,037 | 30% | 42% | 13% | 8% | — | — | 46% | 54% |
13 February 2024 | uComms[5][6] | 1,743 | 34.2% | 37.3% | 12.2% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 50% | 50% |
26 December 2023 | uComms[7] | 1,911 | 34.4% | 36.2% | — | — | — | — | 49% | 51% |
15 December 2023 | Steven Miles is officially elected Leader of Queensland Labor; sworn in as Premier of Queensland. |
13 December 2023 | uComms[8] | 1,143 | 34% | 38.2% | 11.9% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 48% | 52% |
10 December 2023 | Annastacia Palaszczuk announces her intention to resign as Leader of Queensland Labor and Premier of Queensland. |
September – December 2023 | Resolve Strategic[9][10] | 940 | 33% | 37% | 12% | 8% | — | 10% | 49.5% | 50.5% |
4–10 October 2023 | YouGov[11] | 1,013 | 33% | 41% | 13% | 8% | 2% | 3% | 48% | 52% |
26 August – 6 September 2023 | RedBridge[12][13][14][15] | 2,012 | 26% | 41% | 14% | 9% | — | 10% | 45% | 55% |
May – August 2023 | Resolve Strategic[16] | 943 | 32% | 38% | 11% | 8% | 1% | 10%[a] | 48% | 52% |
29 June – 2 July 2023 | Freshwater Strategy[17] | 1,065 | 34% | 40% | 11% | — | — | 15% | 49% | 51% |
17 January – 17 April 2023 | Resolve Strategic[18] | 943 | 35% | 33% | 12% | 7% | 1% | 11%[b] | 52.5% | 47.5% |
30 March – 5 April 2023 | YouGov[19] | 1,015 | 33% | 39% | 13% | 10% | 2% | — | 49% | 51% |
1–8 December 2022 | YouGov[20] | ~1,000 | 34% | 38% | 13% | 11% | — | 4% | 50% | 50% |
21 August – 4 December 2022 | Resolve Strategic[21] | 924 | 37% | 35% | 11% | 6% | 1% | 10%[c] | 53.2% | 46.8% |
23–30 June 2022 | YouGov[22] | ~1,000 | 34% | 38% | 14% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 50% | 50% |
18–23 February 2022 | YouGov[23] | ~1,000 | 39% | 38% | 10% | 8% | 1% | 4% | 52% | 48% |
31 October 2020 election | | 39.6% | 35.9% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 5.7% | 53.2% | 46.8% |
Some polls do not publish a two-party-preferred result. In these cases, the result has been manually calculated from preference flows at the 2020 election.
Preferred Premier and satisfaction
Preferred Premier
Date | Polling firm | Sample | Preferred Premier |
Miles | Crisafulli | Don't know |
February – May 2024 | Resolve Strategic[1] | 947 | 28% | 39% | 33% |
9–17 Apr 2024 | YouGov[24] | 1,092 | 27% | 40% | 33% |
7–13 March 2024 | Newspoll[4] | 1,037 | 37% | 43% | 20% |
13 February 2024 | uComms[5][6] | 1,743 | 49% | 51% | — |
26 December 2023 | uComms[7] | 1,911 | 47.8% | 52.2% | — |
Date | Polling firm | Sample | Preferred Premier |
Palaszczuk | Crisafulli | Don't know |
September – December 2023 | Resolve Strategic[9][10] | 940 | 34% | 39% | 27% |
10 Nov 2023 | SEC Newgate[25] | 600 | 30% | 34% | 36% |
4–10 Oct 2023 | YouGov[11] | 1,013 | 35% | 37% | 28% |
December 2023 | Resolve Strategic[9][10] | 940 | 34% | 39% | 27% |
May – August 2023 | Resolve Strategic[16] | 943 | 36% | 37% | 27% |
29 June – 2 July 2023 | AFR/Freshwater Strategy[17] | 1,065 | 44% | 45% | 11% |
17 Jan – 17 Apr 2023 | Resolve Strategic[18] | 943 | 39% | 31% | 31% |
30 Mar – 5 Apr 2023 | YouGov[19] | 1,015 | 31% | 29% | 40% |
1–8 Dec 2022 | YouGov[20] | ~1,000 | 39% | 28% | 33% |
21 Aug – 4 Dec 2022 | Resolve Strategic[21] | 924 | 42% | 30% | 28% |
23–30 Jun 2022 | YouGov[22] | ~1,000 | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Satisfaction ratings
Date | Polling firm | Sample | Miles | Crisafulli |
Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't Know | Net | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't Know | Net |
February – May 2024 | Resolve Strategic[1] | 947 | — | — | — | –15% | — | — | — | +14% |
9–17 Apr 2024 | YouGov[24] | 1,092 | 25% | 47% | 28% | –22% | 40% | 26% | 34% | +14% |
7–13 March 2024 | Newspoll[4] | 1,037 | 38% | 49% | 13% | -11% | 47% | 33% | 20% | +14% |
13 February 2024 | uComms[5][6] | 1,743 | 44.2% | 25.2% | 25.2% | +19% | 41.7% | 18.7% | 31.2% | +23% |
13 December 2023 | uComms[8] | 1,143 | 38.4% | 25.9% | 35.6% | +12.5% | — | — | — | — |
Date | Polling firm | Sample | Palaszczuk | Crisafulli |
Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't Know | Net | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't Know | Net |
September – December 2023 | Resolve Strategic[9][10] | 940 | — | — | — | –17% | — | — | — | +9% |
4–10 Oct 2023 | YouGov[11] | 1,013 | 32% | 52% | 16% | –20% | 37% | 26% | 37% | +11% |
September – December 2023 | Resolve Strategic[9][10] | 940 | — | — | — | –17% | — | — | — | +9% |
May – August 2023 | Resolve Strategic[16] | 943 | — | — | — | –15% | — | — | — | +7% |
29 June – 2 July 2023 | AFR/Freshwater Strategy[17] | 1,065 | 39% | 47% | 14% | –8% | — | — | — | — |
1–8 Dec 2022 | YouGov[20] | ~1,000 | 40% | 41% | 19% | –1% | 31% | 27% | 42% | +4% |
23–30 Jun 2022 | YouGov[22] | ~1,000 | 45% | 30% | 16% | +15% | 31% | 23% | 46% | +8% |
18–23 Feb 2022 | YouGov[23] | ~1,000 | 50% | 36% | 14% | +14% | — | — | — | — |
Notes
References
- ^ a b c Dennien, Matt (21 May 2024). "Crisafulli's LNP climbs higher against Miles' Labor leadership". Brisbane Times.
- ^ Bonham, Kevin. "#ResolvePM Qld (state) ALP 26 LNP 43 Grn 13 ON 8 IND 8 KAP 1 other 1 (IMO IND too high others too low but that matters little). My 2PP estimate 55.5-44.5 to LNP. Sample over last 3 months. #qldpol". X.
- ^ Johnson, Hayden; Burns, Christopher (26 April 2024). "YouGov poll: Labor on track to lose 21 seats at Queensland state election". Courier Mail.
- ^ a b c Lynch, Lydia (15 March 2024). "Newspoll: Queensland's Liberal National Party in box seat for majority government". The Australian.
- ^ a b c Johnson, Hayden (23 February 2024). "Polling shock: Battlelines drawn as explosive new poll delivers boilover no one saw coming". Courier Mail.
- ^ a b c "uComms: 50-50 in Queensland – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 2024-02-23.
- ^ a b McCormack, Madura (26 December 2023). "UComms poll: Steven Miles's ascension makes little difference to Labor fortunes". Courier Mail.
- ^ a b Smee, Ben (21 December 2023). "Poll bombshell: Result that changes everything in battle for Premier". Guardian Australia.
- ^ a b c d e Dennien, Matt (5 December 2023). "Support for Labor steadies, despite dip in Palaszczuk's popularity". Brisbane Times.
- ^ a b c d e "Resolve Strategic: LNP 37, Labor 33, Greens 12 in Queensland – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 2023-12-06.
- ^ a b c Johnson, Hayden (26 October 2023). "Poll bombshell: Result that changes everything in battle for Premier". Courier Mail.
- ^ Bennett, Stephanie (9 September 2023). "New Qld poll shows 'strong mood' to dump Labor". Courier Mail.
- ^ Tapper, Michelle; Iorio, Kelsie (9 September 2023). "LNP gains more ground over Labor in polls, surges ahead in primary vote". ABC News (Australia).
- ^ "Weekend miscellany: Voice and Queensland polls, Liberal Senate preselections (open thread) – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 2023-09-09.
- ^ "Queensland vote intention" (PDF). RedBridge Group. Retrieved 2023-09-09.
- ^ a b c Dennien, Matt (17 August 2023). "LNP ahead in the polls as voters consider Crisafulli over Palaszczuk". Brisbane Times.
- ^ a b c Ludlow, Mark (5 July 2023). "Palaszczuk on track to lose in 2024: poll". Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 5 July 2023.
- ^ a b Dennien, Matt (19 April 2023). "Crashing the parties: Voters mark leaders down but Palaszczuk keeps her edge". Brisbane Times.
- ^ a b McKay, Jack (21 April 2023). "Annastacia Palaszczuk's standing as preferred premier sinks to lowest level since she took up top job". The Courier-Mail. Retrieved 22 April 2023.
- ^ a b c "YouGov poll reveals LNP and Labor neck and neck". The Courier Mail. 11 December 2022.
- ^ a b "Palaszczuk Labor still favoured by voters at political halfway mark". Brisbane Times. 12 December 2022.
- ^ a b c "Palaszczuk shockwaves: Labor's lead obliterated, shock result if election held today". The Courier Mail. 4 July 2022.
- ^ a b "LNP closing the gap on Labor's lead in the polls, Annastacia Palaszczuk viewed less favourably". The Courier Mail. 25 February 2022.
- ^ a b McCormack, Madura (26 April 2024). "YouGov poll: Steven Miles more unpopular than Campbell Newman before 2014 election defeat". Courier Mail.
- ^ Pierce, Jeremy; Mulvaney, Mikaela (10 November 2023). "Shock poll result for Queensland government". Courier Mail.
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